Weekend reading: Inflation starts to cool even as we feel the heat

What caught my eye this week.

Afternoon everyone, how are you finding the heatwave?

Portent of doom? Chance for a glass of vino in the garden at 8pm with your feet up pretending you’re in the Med?

Maybe a bit of both?

Actually, don’t answer. The usual suspects (or at least their social media bots) have moved on from blaming the EU and Covid denial to calling climate change a hoax. I’d rather they did so elsewhere.

At least shares have been recovering nicely.

The market seems to think it has sniffed out inflation rolling over, and in that environment future earnings become more valuable again.

I expected this – alas six months and one invasion ago – so I’m predisposed to agree. But when you look at the energy bills forecast for next year it’s going to take some believing. And another shock (or maybe yet a new variant in the pandemic) would surely set us back again.

Still as the graph below shows, it’s not unprecedented that a disinterested pound-cost averaging passive investor could get to December, do their annual check-in, and assume 2022 was a nothing happening year.

The rewards of passive investing stretch far further than saving a few quid on fees, right?

Have a balmy weekend.

From Monevator

Bear market recovery: how long does it really take? – Monevator

What happens to your credit score when you apply for a credit card – Monevator

From the archive-ator: wealth preservation strategies of the rich – Monevator

News

Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view you can click to read the piece without being a paid subscriber. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing if you read them a lot!1

Drought declared in several parts of England – Sky News

UK economy shrinks as stagflation looms… – Yahoo Finance

…so what would a recession mean for your money? – Which

House prices still rising despite falling demand, says RICS… – Sky News

…with London prime property near top of global league for future gains – ThisIsMoney

‘Crying CEO’ criticised for tearful LinkedIn layoffs doubles down – Independent

(Click to enlarge)

A [US] 60/40 was positive for the rest of the year after 9/10 worst first-halves – via Meb Faber

Energy bills mini-special

UK energy bills ‘set to cost two months wages’, ministers warned – Guardian

Bills will top £5,000 next year, says energy consultancy – Yahoo Finance

A quarter of UK hospitality outfits may close due to high energy bills – ThisIsMoney

What is Don’t Pay UK and will it work? – ThisIsMoney

Products and services

Free tool that guesstimates whether it’s worth paying up to remortgage early [Tool]Nous

Delivery text scammers that go on to pose as your bank – Which

Open a SIPP with Interactive Investor and pay no SIPP fee for six months. Terms apply – Interactive Investor

Freetrade introduces new ‘trading breaks’ feature that prevents buying for 24 hours – Freetrade

Packet fresh US ETF meant to capture overnight anomaly already flunking – Advisor Perspectives

Homes for sale with price drops, in pictures – Guardian

Comment and opinion

What do investors believe they can do but can’t? – Behavioural Investment

Investors need some cosmic insignificance therapy – A Teachable Moment

Six key issues for expats returning to the UK [Search result]FT

Should you die with zero? – Of Dollars and Data

Looking for light at the end of a very dark tunnel – David Smith

Inflation debates: YoY vs MoM – Pragmatic Capitalism

What’s the bull case? – The Irrelevant Investor

Five heavy-duty finance and investing books for your holiday reading – Humble Dollar

Debt denominator blindness – A Wealth of Common Sense

Treats and rewards – The Escape Artist

Chasing the fad – The Best Interest

Wade Pfau on the risks of retirement today [US but relevant, podcast]Morningstar

Crypt o’ crypto

The economic limits of Bitcoin [PDF]SSRN Paper [h/t Abnormal Returns]

Who buys cryptocurrency? [Trigger warning: it ain’t pretty]TEBI

What NFTs can learn from art and luxury – Uncharted Territories

Naughty corner: Active antics

Selling Telecom Plus after recent share price gains – UK Dividend Stocks

How to own a fraction of a Warhol [Search result]FT

Value spreads have gone back to tech bubble highs [Graph]AQR

Kindle book bargains

The Ride of a Lifetime by [long-time Disney CEO] Bob Iger – £0.99 on Kindle

Anthro-Vision: How Anthropology Can Explain Business and Life by Gillian Tett – £0.99 on Kindle

Money: The True Story of a Made-Up Thing by Jacob Goldstein – £1.19 on Kindle

Simple Savings Hacks for a Happy Life by Holly Smith – £0.99 on Kindle

Environmental factors

Britain’s notoriously wet and cold climate is changing, and you won’t like it – The Conversation

Rainwater globally now considered too toxic for consumption, study finds – Vice

You can’t reverse the ESG trend anymore – Joachim Klement

Off our beat

Rare skills – Morgan Housel

Siestas: the pleasurable secret to dealing with extreme heat – Slate

Quiet quitting: why doing the bare minimum has gone global – Guardian

Beach vacationers are doing it wrong – The Atlantic

Remote work and the rise of the side startup – Vox

What is Elon Musk? – New York Mag

Brexit stage left: British band tells of farcical barriers encountered on EU tour – Guardian

Stop ghosting and start saying no – HBR

Mentor – Indeedably

Humans have always been wrong about humans [A few weeks old]Wired

And finally…

“The big picture, on proper examination, is actually a vast mosaic of microscope scenarios, all intense and urgent for those lonely millions who struggle to inhabit them.”
– Frederick Taylor, The Downfall of Money: Germany’s Hyperinflation and the Destruction of the Middle Class

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The mercury is rising but is inflation cooling? Plus the week’s good reads…
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